Why we ignore New Year forecasts (and you should too)

Tim Horrocks, Managing Partner at rockwealth, reflects on a rollercoaster year for markets, Budget rumours and media noise. His message for 2026? Ignore New Year forecasts and focus on what you actually control.

The financial pages are full of them right now: predictions for 2026. Which sectors will soar. Which markets will stumble. Which funds you absolutely must buy before January is out.

Tim has seen it all before.

"At this time of year, you'll see lots of articles in the media suggesting you should invest in one thing or another, making bold forecasts about the year ahead," says rockwealth's Managing Partner. "But no one knows what the future holds. No one knows which fund, asset class, sector or country is going to perform best in any particular year."

2025 made that clear.

Liberation Day: a lesson in staying calm

Cast your mind back to April. Liberation Day arrived and markets tumbled almost 10% in a very short space of time.

"We had lots of conversations with clients around then about short-term volatility and long-term investment time horizons," Tim recalls. "It was about ironing these things out together."

What happened next? Markets recovered. And then some.

"Most clients will be looking at circa plus 10% for the calendar year 2025," he says. "I think everyone would be very pleased with that if we'd known it back in April during the market lows."

Clients who stayed the course were rewarded. Those who panicked and sold locked in their losses. Same market, very different outcomes.

Budget speculation: two decades of false alarms

Markets weren't the only source of anxiety in 2025.

"We've had probably an unprecedented year of Budget speculation," Tim notes. "Lots of rumours, particularly around pension tax-free cash."

For context: when you access your pension, you can currently withdraw 25% as a tax-free lump sum. Every year, rumours swirl that the government will cap or scrap this. And once again, nothing happened.

"We've had Budget speculation around tax-free cash for 20 years now," says Tim. "Yet again, there were no moves to restrict or remove it. Those who chose to pre-empt what the Chancellor would say may well end up regretting it."

Why we partnered with Söderberg

While others were making predictions, rockwealth was making plans. Swedish investment firm Söderberg & Partners recently took a minority stake in the business.

"This is exciting for us and for our clients," Tim explains. "It allows us to continue building our infrastructure and delivering a great service while driving down costs."

What does that mean in practice? Efficiencies in back-office systems. Greater bargaining power when negotiating fees with fund managers and platforms. Better deals on the technology that keeps everything running.

"It means we're able to continue delivering a fantastic service for the long term and get the best deal possible for our clients," he says. "Our job is acting in our clients' best interest with a fiduciary standard. In other words, we're legally required to put your interests ahead of our own. Sadly, not all financial advisers operate this way."

What matters

Strip away the predictions, the speculation and the noise. What's left?

"For most of our clients with substantial assets, our message continues to be the same. We will help you make informed decisions about your wealth."

That might mean spending it. Holidays, experiences, or more time with loved ones. Or it might mean gifting it to family, friends or charities while you're still around to see the benefit.

"Our job is to give you the peace of mind that, financially, you'll be OK, however long you live," Tim says. "That allows you to make decisions about what to do with your wealth."

This, he believes, is where rockwealth adds real value.

"It goes beyond managing investments. It's the freedom to do what you want to do with your money without worrying about it."